Tectonic shifts in the road freight transport market

Firstly, the appeal of international transport is waning, which suggests a reduction in the number of Polish carriers operating on the international market, particularly in the ‘cross-trade’ segment.

Secondly, the observed decline in the number of Polish businesses wishing to continue operating as international road hauliers or to set up such businesses should be a cause for concern among large international economic organisations. These entities are heavily dependent on the import of transport services, i.e. activities carried out by carriers registered in Poland, whose drivers and fleet operate outside the country’s borders.

Thirdly, an increasing number of logistics operators and freight forwarders have abandoned the illusion that the market will continue to see a surplus of supply over demand for road transport services. New business models are being developed that incorporate partnership-based relationships between the service user and the service provider. Conditions are being created for long-term cooperation, which allows for joint participation in the digital and energy transition. A challenge is emerging for shippers across Europe as to how they can contribute to the regeneration of road hauliers’ capacity, in order to prevent problems in securing logistics services – including transport services – that meet the required standards in terms of both quantity and quality.

An analysis of accounts relating to events that have occurred in past years and centuries provides the basis for formulating scenarios of events that may occur in the future. An analysis of the movement and deformation of lithospheric plates enables us to assess the tectonic changes that have taken place on our planet in the past, as well as to formulate scenarios for future changes.

I refer to tectonic changes to emphasise the significance of the changes that are already underway and will continue in the road freight transport market in Europe, including in Poland.

On the surface, no major changes are visible on the European market. This is due to the fact that for over three years, the volume of freight (measured in tonnes of goods transported) and freight tonnage (measured in tonne-kilometres, which is the product of the weight of goods and the average distance of transport) has not changed significantly. The stability in the volume of goods and transport performance delivered by road hauliers could be interpreted as a state of full satisfaction of the transport needs of the entire European economy. However, a different view can be put forward:

Economic stagnation persists in Europe, as evidenced by the stability of transport demand. Under these conditions, the phenomenon of the gradual erosion of road hauliers’ capacity is underestimated. Capacity is declining gradually, so there are no dramatic situations in which industry and trade face a severe shortage of transport services. But tensions are mounting, and a crisis situation may emerge as soon as – for various reasons – Europe manages to stimulate greater consumer propensity to purchase tangible goods, and a higher propensity to invest in tangible assets emerges among businesses across many sectors of the economy, including industry and construction.

The process of establishing the private road haulage sector in Poland, which began in the late 1980s, has been described many times. It was a success story for hundreds of thousands of private entrepreneurs who started ‘from scratch’. Their achievement lies in building the capacity of this transport sector, which efficiently served the rapidly developing economy in Poland, as well as the economies of other countries in Europe.

During the 25th Freight Forwarders’ Congress, held on 21 June 2026 in Toruń, a debate took place entitled ‘How should freight forwarders respond to the decline in road hauliers’ activity?’. I present the key points from the speeches delivered during this debate.

Firstly, the primary incentive for getting involved in the 1990s in setting up companies providing commercial road haulage services was the opportunity to earn foreign currency. Emerging from a socialist economy, those who took on new challenges assumed the role of entrepreneurs, seeking opportunities to earn foreign currency. Acquiring US dollars, German marks, Swedish kronor and any other ‘hard currency’ was a goal worth working ‘day and night’ for, to drive a lorry abroad and to wander along the few motorways and road networks offering varying levels of traffic safety and comfort during breaks for overnight stays and meals. For many years, the appeal of international transport has been waning. There are many factors contributing to this, one of which is the excessive regulation of transport conditions and the organisation of drivers’ work. In 2026, the heads of large Polish-owned freight forwarding and transport companies openly state that providing transport services on domestic routes is more profitable than on international routes, and that recruiting drivers for work that ensures frequent, or even daily, returns home is much easier than recruiting drivers interested in travelling abroad.

Secondly, since 2023, we have been observing a new trend in Poland, namely a gradual decline in the number of companies offering commercial road haulage services. Many comments, widely available in various media, highlight the fact that there is a shortage of drivers. Currently, a new development is coming to the fore. The pool of operators wishing to remain in the market is shrinking, and the number of new carrier registrations is lower than the number of deregistrations from the register of licensed carriers. First and foremost, shippers – that is, industrial and commercial enterprises operating across Europe – rather than logistics operators and freight forwarders acting on behalf of shippers, should ask themselves who will meet their logistics needs if the capacity of the road haulage sector continues to shrink. Given the position of road hauliers registered in Poland within the European transport services market, the greatest market tensions are to be expected in Western European countries, whilst in Poland a relatively slower emergence of excess demand over supply for transport services can be anticipated. If there is no significant improvement in the profitability of services in the ‘cross-trade’ business – i.e. transport between third countries carried out by carriers registered in Poland – it can be predicted that an increasing number of carriers will reduce the volume of services provided on these routes. The scenario of a shortage in the supply of transport services should be included in the strategic analysis agenda of European industrial and commercial enterprises. The management boards of these companies are under pressure to reduce operating costs, but they cannot assume that logistics costs will be cut by forcing down freight rates, which determine the profitability of road hauliers. Reducing logistics costs is possible if logistics requirements are adjusted; however, it is advisable to calculate the increase in freight rates on a unit basis, i.e. per kilometre of loaded journey carried out on behalf of the shipper.

Thirdly, logistics operators and freight forwarders are signalling a fundamental shift in their behaviour towards road hauliers. Over the past three decades, their staff have been encouraged to constantly search the market for road hauliers willing to provide services on terms dictated by the client. The main criterion for selecting a carrier was obtaining the lowest possible freight rate. Exerting price pressure, as well as forcing extended payment terms for the service provider, was the primary method used by the intermediary—who accepted orders from the shipper and directed them to the road haulier—to secure the highest possible margin. This business model has now run its course. Anyone who sticks to business as usual runs a huge risk of losing access to the necessary carrier capacity and, as a result, being unable to meet their contractual obligations to shippers. A process of change is already underway – in the form of an evolution – in the relationship between logistics operators and freight forwarders on the one hand, and road hauliers on the other. The aim is to build trust, which is a prerequisite for long-term cooperation. The challenges facing the entire transport industry in the era of digital and energy transition can be met if changes to operational processes are planned jointly. The objectives of these changes are: (1) to improve drivers’ working and social conditions, and to meet their increasingly vocal demand for regular returns home following international journeys, (2) reducing the mileage of empty vehicles and minimising the time drivers spend waiting for loading and unloading operations, (3) increasing the transparency of processes through the mutual exchange of data, which is processed using increasingly advanced IT programmes, including those utilising artificial intelligence solutions, (4) the introduction of rolling stock using alternative fuels (e.g. bioLNG) or equipped with electric drives powered by batteries charged either at hauliers’ depots or logistics centres, or at a developing network of public refuelling and battery charging stations.

It is well known that tectonic shifts can cause destruction, with tsunamis being one of the destructive forces. Methods for building resilience to such threats have been mastered worldwide. Preventive changes can be made to the behaviour of people living and managing their livelihoods in vulnerable areas along ocean coasts. In Poland, we have already identified the opportunities arising for road hauliers, who, by adapting sensibly to new operating conditions, will improve their market position and secure better economic results than those achieved in recent years. Seizing these opportunities will ensure the regeneration of road transport’s potential. Logistics operators and freight forwarders can have a positive impact on the growth rate of established hauliers. A new attitude among leaders in the TSL sector is increasingly evident, manifesting itself in a significant shift in their stance towards hauliers. The stability of logistics services for shippers depends on the success achieved jointly by logistics operators, freight forwarders and road hauliers.

Therefore, they may become the beneficiaries of tectonic shifts in the road freight transport market, but this is conditional on shippers recognising that, in the process of change, their own stance must also be proactive and promote digital and energy transition in road transport. If they do not join in the necessary changes, they will lose stable access to the services of road hauliers handling intra-continental freight exchange. We must not delude ourselves that intermodal transport will increase its role in logistics services, as in many European countries, particularly in Germany, the state of the rail infrastructure is poor and is unlikely to improve any time soon. There is no realistic alternative to road hauliers’ services for land-based transport within Europe. Therefore, it is time to ‘pull together’ to ensure a positive outcome from the tectonic shifts currently taking place in European road freight transport.