Export and import of transport services – two sides of the same coin

Transport needs across Europe will not decrease. Stability or even slight economic growth will mean that industry, trade, agriculture, municipal services, and even the expanding and rearming army will seek transport service providers. Structural changes in the economy are reflected in the transport system. The less raw materials, including coal, are consumed, the less interest there is in rail and inland waterway transport. Contrary to what politicians and officials write in transport policy, the share of road transport in the European land transport system is increasing.

The potential of road hauliers – in Europe, as on other continents, 100% controlled by private capital – could be expanded if the volume of goods traded increases. Private entrepreneurs have sufficient equity capital and can use foreign capital almost without restriction, mainly through leasing. In addition, rolling stock manufacturers are introducing a rental service for new trucks and semi-trailers, which reduces the capital requirements of carriers. However, it is worth noting two significant barriers to growth. Most attention is paid to demographic changes, which are manifested in a faster departure from the driving profession than the recruitment of young staff. The shortage of qualified staff is a barrier that affects not only the development of road transport, but also numerous sectors of the economy that employ large groups of specialists. In addition to the shortage of drivers who are willing to work as “land sailors” away from home for many weeks, the shortage of successors is also becoming a barrier. The generation of micro and small business owners, active since the 1990s, which dominates the ownership structure of road transport companies, is unable to find a sufficiently large group of successors.

The direction of demographic change is the same across Europe, but the situation on the labor market varies from country to country. An important factor shaping access to workers is the migration balance. In recent years, Poland has been one of the countries where foreigners have entered the labor market. International carriers have employed over 100,000 drivers, mainly from Ukraine and Belarus, who were looking for work.

Data from 2022-2024 indicate that the European road transport market has stabilized after the short crisis of 2020-2021. Polish carriers, who since the 1990s have been striving to obtain as many orders as possible both on the domestic market and abroad, maintain their leading position. The following list includes 15 EU countries with the highest transport performance in domestic and international relations in 2024 [billion tkm]. If the volume of work performed in international transport is taken into account as a criterion for determining the European market leader, carriers registered in Poland were (as in previous years) the player that captured as much as 32.58% of the European international transport market. This is a significantly higher share than the 19.35% achieved by Polish carriers in the total (domestic and international) transport performance of carriers registered in those European countries whose data are included in the Eurostat report.

The position of carriers from the group of 15 countries is also illustrated in the chart below.

Industry debates and media opinions are dominated by statements that carriers in Poland face barriers to the development of their business. Among other things, the following are pointed out:

• increased operating costs,

• lack of drivers,

• wage pressure,

• unfair competition.

Therefore, the prevailing view is that the situation is bad and may get worse. However, the facts show that the transport work performed by carriers registered in Poland on the international market in 2024 was not lower than in previous years.

This is due to the following circumstances:

• operating costs are changing in many directions, some (e.g., wage costs) are rising, but some are falling – this applies in particular to fuel costs, which have fallen throughout Europe,

• there was no shortage of drivers, although recruiting and retaining them for a longer period of time requires increasing effort on the part of owners and managers of road transport companies; it is particularly difficult to recruit foreigners who have problems obtaining visas and work permits in the EU,

• Wage pressure is a phenomenon that affects the entire labor market – road transport companies have not yet acquired the competence to use available digital technologies to increase the productivity of their potential, including better use of drivers' working time (and not just driving time) of drivers, as well as to use these technologies to gain knowledge about the behavior of their clients at vehicle loading and unloading points, where drivers' working time is still very often wasted.

• competition in the transport services market is demonized, as the majority of transport in Europe (both domestic and international) is carried out on the basis of contracts – most often negotiated by clients and service providers in a procedure that eliminates behavior that violates the interests of one of the parties; The situation is different on the spot market, which has been distorted by the behavior of electronic exchange operators.

When considering the prospects for the functioning of the transport services market in Europe, it is worth moving away from the issue of barriers and redefining the subject of the discussion and seeking answers to the question.

Who is seeking to increase exports of international road transport services provided by carriers registered in Poland, and why?

Finding the answer to this question has a fundamental advantage. The prospect of shaping the position of carriers can be debated as a new opportunity for development. The focus is on existing opportunities for development and the possibility of exploiting them.

First, we need to consider the needs of those who import these services. These are shippers who operate in Europe and use the services of carriers from Poland to meet their diverse transport needs.

Many of these shippers, in their purchasing policy, avoid looking for a service provider who is only able to fulfill individual orders. Their strategy for shaping relationships in supply chains involves contracting comprehensive logistics services, of which road transport is only one element. In practice, the demand side of the transport services market is represented by logistics operators and freight forwarders, not shippers. As a result, carriers only obtain orders from shippers “first-hand” in some cases. The rule that applies to the European international road transport market is as follows:

The import of international road transport services is most often carried out—as in the trade of raw materials, semi-finished products, and finished products—with the involvement of intermediaries.

Taking into account the defined rule, it must be acknowledged that Polish carriers as service providers are not seeking to increase exports of services, while large international organizations operating in the TSL industry are looking for opportunities to increase imports of these services. For many years, in their opinion, service providers from Poland have been preferred as the best performers of services provided:

• in the handling of Polish exports and imports of goods (transport in the export/import segment),

• in the handling of exports and imports of goods by entities operating outside Poland, which transfer goods for transport between their country and an EU country other than Poland (cross-trade transport),

• in transport services provided within the borders of a country other than Poland (transport in the cabotage segment).

Since the services of carriers registered in Poland are in demand on the European road transport market, this situation is an opportunity to increase sales of these services.

Do small and micro enterprises, that provide international road transport services, recognize these opportunities for development and know how to take advantage of them?

As long as discussions in employer associations focus on barriers rather than existing opportunities, there will be no motivation to start a new era of road transport in Poland, in which good practices can be created in two areas.

Firstly, carriers must find a way to leverage new technologies, i.e., join the digital transformation and become its beneficiaries.

Secondly, public authorities in Poland will recognize that the export of transport services is not only of economic importance (it brings foreign currency into the country and creates conditions for domestic entrepreneurs to accumulate capital), but also of strategic importance.

The first of these changes can be achieved in Poland, as we have a sufficiently strong pool of ICT specialists, including those specializing in 5G and the Internet of Things (IoT), as well as programmers who can develop and implement the appropriate software.

The change in the attitude of public authorities is intended to lead to a situation where government policy not only serves to increase the attractiveness of investments for foreign partners, but also consciously creates a position for Polish SMEs on the European market. Small and micro-enterprises have a strong overall position in this transport market, but without the support of the public sector, they will not be able to expand their position in the European economic system, which is undergoing digital and energy transformation amid a declining number of workers permanently residing in EU countries.

The coming quarters will allow us to form an opinion on whether appropriate initiatives by entrepreneurs and public authorities will be taken and consistently implemented, and whether existing opportunities will be exploited.